Nearly half of all flatbed loads are being turned down at the offered rate, according to FreightWaves SONAR. The CDL crackdown, rising carrier insolvencies, and tightening insurance availability have converged on the same supply pool simultaneously, creating structural — not just seasonal — capacity constraints in the open-deck segment.

A federal rule effective March 2026 prohibits asylum seekers, refugees, and DACA recipients from obtaining or renewing CDLs. Foreign-born drivers account for nearly one in six truckers nationally. Texas DPS reported a 31% drop in CDL renewals in April compared to the same month last year. The ATA has raised its 2028 driver shortage projection to 175,000 — and moved the timeline forward by six months.

North America added rigs last week per Baker Hughes, with Texas driving the gain and the Permian adding one — a meaningful reversal after a brutal stretch tied to tariff uncertainty and softening crude. The Permian leads all U.S. basins with 241 active rigs, representing 44% of total national drilling activity. Every active rig generates roughly 10–15 flatbed moves per month for drill pipe, casing, compressors, and wellhead equipment.

Flatbed load posts on the DAT One marketplace are significantly above historical averages. Construction season, energy-related freight, and data center expansion are driving concurrent demand across the same limited carrier pool. U.S. steel production in early 2026 is running approximately 5% above the same period last year — and steel moves on flatbeds.

Rising operating costs — fuel, insurance, equipment — continue to drive smaller carrier exits from the market. 92% of carriers operate ten trucks or fewer, making small fleets disproportionately exposed to regulatory and cost pressures. Fewer carriers means less competition for loads, further tightening the capacity available to shippers relying on spot market access.

Since ChatGPT launched in 2022, annual U.S. data center construction spending has tripled. Structural steel, generators, HVAC equipment, and prefab components all move on stepdecks and flatbeds, competing directly with energy-sector freight for the same specialized equipment pool. This trend shows no signs of slowing through 2026 and into 2027.